WTO Global Trade Outlook 2026: Merchandise Trade Growth to Slow to 1.9%
In March 2026, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics- March 2026 report, projecting global merchandise trade growth to slow sharply to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, normalization of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related demand, and the effects of earlier tariff-driven front-loading of shipments.
Key Findings:
2027: Global merchandise trade growth is projected to recover to 2.6% in 2027.
Overall Trade Growth: Combined goods and services trade is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2026, compared to 4.7% in 2025.
Services Trade Growth: Commercial services trade growth is expected to ease to 4.8% in 2026, down from 5.3% in 2025, before accelerating again to 5.1% in 2027.
Global GDP: The Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is forecast to moderate slightly from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.8% in both 2026 and 2027.